Germany’s far-right AfD win historic victory, but fall short of majority in Saxony-Anhalt

AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt Landslide Reshapes German Politics at the State Level

Healfromzero.com – The Alternative for Germany has pulled off what many observers considered improbable just weeks ago: capturing the largest bloc of seats in a German state parliament and coming within three votes of outright governing power. In the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, preliminary results showed the far-right party claiming roughly 44 percent of the vote and 39 of the 83 legislative seats. That figure falls three seats short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority, yet it marks the nearest any right-wing populist movement has come to actually running a German state government since the end of the Second World War.

The result lands in a political landscape where absolute majorities at the state level remain exceedingly rare. German coalition culture, built over decades of postwar consensus politics, has made single-party rule almost unthinkable. The AfD’s near-miss therefore carries symbolic weight far beyond the arithmetic of one regional legislature.

The Candidate and the Campaign

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s lead candidate for the Saxony-Anhalt race, emerged from the evening’s events in Magdeburg — the state capital — visibly elated. Party leaders and campaign staff whooped and exchanged backslaps as the preliminary tallies confirmed the historic threshold had been crossed. Speaking to reporters in the event hall, Siegmund framed the outcome as a mandate for a fundamental reorientation of German foreign and domestic policy.

“This is a historic moment for our beautiful region. The people have shown very clearly that they finally want political change. And above all, they’ve shown that they want it with us.”

The campaign itself had been built around what the party calls “remigration” — a platform calling for the return of non-German residents to their countries of origin. Beyond immigration, the AfD outlined plans to steer schools and cultural institutions toward what it describes as more traditional values, to overhaul the structure of public broadcasting, and to adopt a markedly warmer posture toward Moscow. Siegmund told journalists that the result would empower his party to pursue what he termed “sensible diplomacy” with both Russia and the United States.

“We need both if we as Germany want to be successful,” he said.

Der Spiegel magazine had previously labeled Siegmund “Germany’s most dangerous man,” a characterization that reflected the party’s openly pro-Russian orientation and its rhetoric on migration and Islam. That reputation now sits alongside a near-majority electoral mandate, a combination that has intensified debate across the political spectrum.

Coalition Math and Internal Fracture

The immediate question facing the AfD is whether to attempt governing through a coalition or to operate as a minority government. The far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) cleared the five-percent threshold to enter the Saxony-Anhalt parliament, making it the only realistic partner for a governing majority. Yet the AfD has signaled disinterest in such a deal.

Speaking on German public broadcaster ZDF, Siegmund dismissed the prospect outright, insisting that the BSW was “part of the problem, not the solution” and that voters deserved precisely what they had voted for. Party co-chair Tina Chrupalla, by contrast, said the AfD would be prepared to “extend a hand” to all parties — a formulation that left the door ajar while stopping short of a commitment.

All mainstream parties have ruled out cooperation with the AfD. German intelligence services have classified the party as “extremist” on the basis of its anti-Muslim and anti-migrant rhetoric, and the so-called firewall — the informal norm barring joint policy work with the far-right — remains firmly in place. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel has denounced that norm as “deeply undemocratic.” Even if every other party were to unite, the arithmetic in Saxony-Anhalt still leaves a grand coalition short of a majority, meaning the AfD would likely govern in a minority regardless.

Federal Fallout and the Merz Question

For Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his federal government, the Saxony-Anhalt result is a stinging blow. Already unpopular across much of the country, Merz now faces sharpened questions about his political survival. The German public broadcaster ARD put the issue bluntly: “the real question is how much longer will he last.”

In the state itself, the CDU lost roughly half its previous vote share. Current CDU state minister Sven Schulze acknowledged the scale of the shift.

“This result tells us a great deal… the people have sent a clear message… and that this message must be recognized.”

Weidel seized the moment to press the point at the federal level, saying she expected Merz’s removal from office and fresh federal elections “before Christmas.” Key AfD officials have made frequent trips to Moscow in recent months, a pattern that has drawn criticism from both Berlin’s traditional allies and domestic opponents.

International Reactions

US President Donald Trump, whose administration has long cultivated a relationship with the AfD, posted a photograph of the exit-poll results to his Truth Social account within hours of polling stations closing. Kirill Dmitriev, one of President Vladimir Putin’s closest confidants, shared the post on his X account and added a comment of his own:

“AfD’s historic win humiliates the arrogance, narrow-mindedness, warmongering, ineptitude and hypocrisy of the discredited German ruling coalition.”

Weidel, speaking in the minutes immediately after polls closed, framed the result as a rejection of what she described as foreign-first policymaking.

“Germans simply are fed up with policy being made against Germany’s interests. We stood for election very clearly to represent the interests of our country – not Ukraine’s, not any other country’s.”

What Comes Next

The Saxony-Anhalt parliament will convene in the coming weeks to elect a state premier. Whether the AfD forms a minority government, seeks a narrow coalition with the BSW, or triggers a second election will depend on internal negotiations that appear already to be underway. For the broader German political system, the episode marks a watershed: a far-right party has now demonstrated, in a real ballot box, that it can command nearly half the electorate in a federal state. The firewall, the coalition norms, and the postwar consensus architecture that have governed German politics for eight decades now face their most serious stress test yet.