The Trump administration claims oil is flowing normally again. There’s just one problem

Oil Flow Claims Face Scrutiny as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Falls Short

Healfromzero.com – The Trump administration’s assertion that petroleum exports have returned to normal levels following regional tensions is drawing skepticism from industry analysts who point to shipping data that tells a different story. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced Tuesday that Middle Eastern oil shipments surpassed pre-conflict benchmarks on Sunday and have remained near typical levels for approximately seven days. However, this optimistic assessment appears disconnected from what satellite imagery and vessel tracking systems reveal about actual maritime activity.

Wright communicated through a social media post that oil movement was restored after American military forces collaborated with neighboring Gulf states to establish a coordinated plan for transporting crude through the critical Strait of Hormuz. He further noted that several Middle Eastern nations circumvented the waterway entirely by utilizing pipeline networks and alternative export terminals. The American military continuously monitors vessel movements through the strait and provides daily updates to the Department of Energy regarding shipping patterns.

Discrepancy Between Official Claims and Observable Data

Dan Pickering, who founded and leads Pickering Energy Partners, expressed doubt about the accuracy of official figures.

In theory, the US government with all its technology and all the military assets they have in the region should have the best number on the flow through the strait. But this is hard to verify.

Shipping analytics firm Kpler reported that merely 84 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz during the previous week, with only nine making the journey on Sunday alone. This figure represents a substantial decline from the more than 100 daily transits recorded before hostilities began. Such limited traffic falls considerably short of what would be required to transport the 9 million barrels per day that Wright stated were moving through the waterway.

Investment bank JPMorgan estimated that actual oil throughput closer to 4 million barrels daily. Matt Smith, who directs commodity research at Kpler, emphasized the gap between official statements and ground-level observations.

It is not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting.

Pipeline Capacity and Shadow Traffic

One complicating factor involves vessels that deactivate their automatic identification transponders to navigate the strait without detection. Kpler employs a combination of satellite photographs and transponder information to estimate this hidden shipping volume. The Department of Energy maintains that its tracking capabilities surpass those of commercial monitoring services. A department spokesperson stated that

in coordination with the US military, the US Department of Energy maintains the best available data related to oil and oil products leaving the Arabian gulf.

Wright’s assertion that between 5 and 7 million barrels per day bypass the strait through pipeline infrastructure appears well-supported. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline system alone redirects more than 5 million barrels daily toward Red Sea terminals. Despite warnings from Iran’s Houthi allies about potentially blocking the Bab-al-Mandeb strait, maritime traffic through that route has maintained near-normal levels over recent weeks.

Market Manipulation or Genuine Recovery?

Wright has stated that 15 million barrels exited the Arabian Gulf region over the past week, with 20 million barrels departing on Sunday alone—figures exceeding pre-war averages. However, Middle Eastern nations have already maximized their pipeline capabilities to reroute petroleum around the strait. This creates difficulty in aligning Wright’s assertions with both the physical constraints of regional infrastructure and the visible shipping patterns.

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, observed that only 6 vessels crossed the strait on Monday—4 traveling inbound and 2 outbound—with none being crude oil carriers.

The administration is really trying to jawbone oil prices to the downside, as they have been doing for months,

Pickering remarked.

Wright’s statements follow a broader pattern of the Trump administration attempting to present favorable conditions in global energy markets. President Donald Trump has frequently declared that the United States maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, a position contradicted by the necessity of military escorts for commercial ships and by Iran’s attacks on 64 vessels transiting the strait, which caused 17 deaths and 35 injuries among seafarers.

Helima Croft, who heads global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, provided additional perspective on the situation.

We are nowhere near normal, but they have had six months of success selling this market narrative.

While markets have adjusted and prices have stayed relatively stable despite what qualifies as a historic supply disruption, this stability stems largely from weakened global oil demand and China’s reduction of its substantial petroleum reserves. Traffic patterns through the strait continue fluctuating. A single day, weekend, or week showing normal traffic levels proves unsustainable when such results require coordinated military intervention. Ships must repeatedly enter the strait to collect and transport oil, yet many remain hesitant to navigate these waters while security concerns persist.