As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?
UK Military Shrinks Amid Defense Spending Concerns
Former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson has raised alarms about the UK’s defense spending, arguing it jeopardizes national security. He criticized the recent Strategic Defence Review (SDR) for failing to ensure adequate investment, stating,
“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”
BBC Verify has analyzed the current scale of the UK military, revealing significant reductions since the end of the Cold War.
British Army: A Sharp Decline in Personnel
In 1990, the British Army maintained 153,000 regular soldiers, but that number has since plummeted to 73,790. The 2025 SDR aimed to stabilize the regular force at 73,000, yet enlistment applications dropped by approximately 40% in 2025 compared to 2024. Meanwhile, the number of reservists has also fallen, from 76,000 in 1990 to 25,770 today.
Royal Navy’s Fleet Size Has Shrunk Significantly
The Royal Navy’s combat ship count has decreased from 48 major vessels in 1990—comprising 13 destroyers and 35 frigates—to just 11 frigates and 6 destroyers now. Recent incidents, such as the delayed deployment of HMS Dragon to the Gulf to safeguard a RAF base in Cyprus, have sparked debates about the navy’s readiness.
RAF’s Combat Aircraft Fleet Evolves but Shrinks
The RAF’s combat jet inventory has shrunk from over 300 in 1990 to a mix of 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft. While these newer models are technologically advanced, their numbers are lower. Uncrewed aircraft systems, or drones, have emerged as a critical component of the UK’s air capabilities, a development unseen in 1990. Drones have become a major threat in the Ukraine conflict, surpassing traditional artillery in casualties.
Government’s Defense Spending Ambitions
In response to Robertson’s critiques, the government asserts it plans the largest sustained defense spending increase since the Cold War. However, this claim is viewed as modest, given the long-term decline in defense budgets since the Berlin Wall fell. The MoD aims to allocate 2.5% of GDP to NATO-qualifying defense by April 2027, with a goal of 3% in the next Parliament. NATO data shows the UK’s 2025 spending of 2.3% GDP places it near the middle of member nations, trailing only Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia in exceeding 3.5%.
Procurement Challenges Highlight Systemic Issues
The MoD oversees 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) in 2024-25, yet progress on 12 of these was rated “Red” by the National Audit Office (NAO), indicating unattainable success. The NAO noted the MoD often struggles to meet project deadlines, costs, and quality. For contracts over £20 million, it typically takes six and a half years to finalize awards. The 2025 SDR proposed a “segmented approach” to speed up procurement, but challenges persist.
Analysts stress that the UK must invest more in military technology, particularly drones, to address modern threats. Despite claims of increased spending, the shift from welfare to defense funding remains a key point of contention, with welfare costs projected to reach 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade.