Exclusive: US military hasn’t conducted standard review of intelligence tied to strike on school in Iran, sources say
Standard Intelligence Review Delayed Following US Strike on Iranian School, Sources Report
Investigation Stalled Despite Critical Assessment Gap
Exclusive – According to three individuals with knowledge of the situation, a military command has allowed an investigation into a US strike that struck an educational facility in Iran to remain dormant for several months. During this period, senior leaders have deliberately postponed ordering a crucial, routine intelligence review that would assist in clarifying the circumstances surrounding the incident.
Within seven days of the attack, the initial two phases of what is known as a “battle damage assessment” were finished. These preliminary stages addressed fundamental questions, such as confirming whether the munition successfully struck and damaged the intended objective. This timeline indicated that American forces were indeed responsible for hitting the Shajareh Tayyiba school located in Minab, the sources confirmed.
However, a third standard review phase—a process where analysts, usually drawn from the Defense Intelligence Agency, examine the complete collection of relevant satellite photographs alongside other intelligence materials to offer a comprehensive understanding of events and their broader mission impact—was never initiated, the sources explained. Such a review would nearly always be launched in the immediate period following a significant strike, they noted, yet it had not commenced by early July.
Information Lockdown and Parallel Investigations
An independent probe, which was publicly announced during March, was launched separately. During this process, interviews were carried out with military personnel who participated in the strike operation. According to sources, the knowledge gathered from these interviews—material that could prove valuable to commanders currently conducting strikes against Iran to prevent similar errors—has been “locked down” by US Central Command. Only a small group of officers has been allowed access to the specifics.
“There was no detailed analysis conducted and CENTCOM locked down the investigation/blocked anyone from looking into it,” one of the sources stated.
A Defense Department representative informed CNN that “the investigation is ongoing.” The official further added, “We have nothing further to announce at this moment.”
Timing and Structural Concerns
The sources indicated that the investigation would ultimately help establish responsibility for the erroneous strike. The first source told CNN that the choice to initiate the investigation should not have prevented the DIA from carrying out the more comprehensive third phase of the review, noting that “both could have happened at the same time if they chose to.” An additional DIA review would not, by itself, have established culpability but could have served as supporting evidence, the source clarified.
A US official told CNN that the internal Pentagon investigation was designed to replace a traditional third phase assessment. Both processes could not occur simultaneously because it became evident after the initial review that the incident demanded a thorough examination—conducted by an independent body outside of CENTCOM and unconnected to other agencies that had participated in the strike itself. Once the independent investigation results were delivered to CENTCOM in April, the following delay resulted from a requirement to examine the events even more deeply, the official explained. This was attributed to the fact that the failures leading to the accidental strike extended back years and involved multiple layers of potential errors.
Outdated Intelligence and Casualty Figures
A week after the strike and following the initial two review phases, evidence was already surfacing that the US military had unintentionally targeted the elementary school. This error was caused, at least partially, by outdated intelligence concerning the targeted location—which was thought to be an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval base, sources reported. Iranian state media stated that 168 children and 14 adults perished in the attack.
As of early July, the Pentagon had not requested the Defense Intelligence Agency to execute the third and final phase of the battle damage assessment, a function the agency typically performs, the sources said. DIA had been invited to join the initial, more surface-level review, they noted.
The US military would have likely gained from a more comprehensive analysis of the strike in question across several dimensions, especially considering the apparent missteps that resulted in the deployment of outdated intelligence and wider gaps within the Pentagon’s targeting database that seem to have directly caused the error. CNN previously reported that senior US military commanders overlooked warnings in critical databases indicating that intelligence about potential targets in Iran was severely outdated, yet proceeded with approving strikes—including one that struck the school.
The decision by senior commanders to disregard the warnings was made for “expediency,” two of the sources said, driven by a rush to provide targets at the start of the war. This choice also directly contributed to the accidental strike on the school, the sources added. But the lack of a thorough third-phase review has raised concerns among military analysts about whether all contributing factors have been fully identified and addressed before future operations proceed.