Takeaways from the primary elections in California, Iowa and elsewhere
Takeaways from the Primary Elections in California, Iowa and Elsewhere
Takeaways from the primary elections in California – On Tuesday night, six states across the political spectrum held their primary elections, setting the stage for the November ballot. The results from California, however, are anticipated to unfold gradually due to its late poll closing and slower vote tallying process. This delay creates uncertainty, especially in the gubernatorial race, where Democratic contender Xavier Becerra is emerging as a strong favorite. His campaign, bolstered by the tendency for votes cast after Election Day to skew more Democratic, positions him well for one of the two spots in the November general election. The other slot remains contested, with Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Democratic billionaire investor Tom Steyer vying for the position. Meanwhile, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has secured her place in the November runoff, though the race for the second spot is still in flux. Initial reports suggested Republican former reality TV star Spencer Pratt would advance, but later updates revealed a narrowing gap with progressive city councilmember Nithya Raman. This shift, combined with the Democratic advantage in post-Election Day ballots, keeps the second position uncertain for now.
Iowa’s Senate Race: A Surprise for Democrats
The Iowa Senate race, once viewed as a lower-profile contest, has unexpectedly drawn significant attention. Democratic super PAC VoteVets allocated approximately $10 million to support state Rep. Josh Turek, whose campaign gained momentum despite initial skepticism. State Sen. Zach Wahls attempted to counter this by framing the race as a challenge to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a figure often criticized by some Democrats. However, this strategy did not resonate with voters. In fact, Turek surged ahead, securing a comfortable lead with nearly all the votes counted. The race now advances to a general election matchup against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is seen as the clear favorite in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Yet Democrats remain optimistic, citing potential challenges posed by Trump’s tariffs, which could impact the state’s agriculture-dependent economy and shift voter sentiment.
“If fact, Turek sailed to a painless victory, leading Wahls by 25 points with nearly all the vote reported.”
Despite Turek’s success, Trump’s endorsement record in less prominent races has shown cracks. Two of his backed candidates are heading into runoffs for Georgia governor and Alabama senator, while a third lost outright in the Iowa governor’s race. Trump’s decision to endorse Rep. Randy Feenstra in the Iowa governor’s race was intended to secure a win in a crowded field. However, Feenstra narrowly fell short of businessman Zach Lahn, marking the first time a statewide Trump endorsee has lost a primary in 2026. This setback highlights the growing complexity of Trump’s influence in local races, as his support does not always translate to victory.
Montana’s Gubernatorial Race: A Strategic Shift
In Montana, a state Trump won by a double-digit margin in 2024, Democrats have found a glimmer of hope. A campaign focused on elevating Alani Bankhead, a relatively unknown candidate, successfully secured her the party’s nomination. Bankhead’s victory in the primary, despite raising minimal funds, signals a potential strategy for Democrats to bypass traditional fundraising hurdles. The race now pits Bankhead against Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme, with independent former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar serving as a potential wildcard. Bodnar’s presence could complicate the GOP’s chances, as independents often act as swing voters in deep-red states. This approach aligns with broader Democratic efforts to leverage independent candidates as a bridge between their base and moderate voters, particularly in states where Republican dominance has been unchallenged for years.
South Dakota’s Gubernatorial Contest: A Test of Resilience
South Dakota’s gubernatorial race has also taken an unexpected turn. Former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who led Trump’s administration, faces scrutiny as her successor, Gov. Larry Rhoden, struggles in the primary. Rhoden, the current governor, is trailing businessman Toby Doeden, who advanced to a runoff. Meanwhile, Rep. Dusty Johnson, a Republican, remains in third place. The race is far from over, with Doeden’s momentum suggesting a potential upset. Rhoden’s campaign, however, has not been without challenges, as the primary field has been marked by fierce competition and shifting allegiances. The outcome of this race could serve as a bellwether for Democratic efforts to reclaim seats in states that have historically favored Republican candidates.
Broader Implications for the November Election
Across the country, the primary elections have revealed several key trends. In California, the delayed vote counting and Democratic leaning post-Election Day ballots have created an environment where the governor’s race remains highly competitive. While Becerra is poised to advance, the presence of high-profile Democratic candidates like Tom Steyer and the potential for Republican challenges underscores the state’s pivotal role in the national race. Similarly, in Iowa, the Senate and governor’s races have demonstrated the Democratic Party’s growing ability to influence outcomes in traditionally Republican strongholds. Turek’s victory and the strategic maneuvering around Trump endorsements suggest a more nuanced political landscape than previously anticipated.
The results in Montana and South Dakota further highlight the Democratic strategy of empowering lesser-known candidates and utilizing independent voters as a tactical advantage. Bankhead’s narrow win in Montana, coupled with the potential for Bodnar to disrupt the GOP’s narrative, offers a blueprint for similar efforts in other states. Meanwhile, South Dakota’s race has become a test case for whether the Democratic Party can mount a credible challenge in a state where Trump’s victory was decisive. These developments suggest that the November election will not only be shaped by established candidates but also by emerging voices and shifting alliances within the political spectrum.
As the primary season winds down, the implications of these results are beginning to take shape. California’s delayed vote counting continues to keep the governor’s race in suspense, while Iowa’s outcomes have provided Democrats with a rare opportunity to make inroads in a state where their influence has long been limited. The broader picture, however, is one of strategic maneuvering and unexpected outcomes, with each state’s race offering unique insights into the dynamics of the upcoming general election. Whether these developments signal a broader trend or a temporary shift will become clearer as the November ballots approach, but for now, the primary results have set the stage for an intriguing and unpredictable showdown.