US experience fighting Iran offers lessons for China, experts say
US Experience in Iran Conflict Offers Strategic Insights for China
US experience fighting Iran offers lessons – As the Iran war stretches into its third month, it has become a critical case study for China, revealing how US military systems operate under pressure and highlighting the pivotal role adversaries play in shaping battlefield outcomes. CNN engaged with military analysts from China, Taiwan, and beyond to explore how the recent clashes in the Persian Gulf might influence China’s approach should tensions escalate into a direct confrontation with the United States. These experts caution that Beijing must avoid overestimating its own capabilities while recognizing the adaptability of its opponents, particularly in the context of evolving warfare tactics.
China’s Defensive Vulnerabilities Under Scrutiny
Former Colonel Fu Qianshao of China’s air force emphasized the importance of refining defensive strategies, citing the Iranian experience as a stark reminder of potential weaknesses. He noted how Iran managed to bypass US anti-missile defenses, such as the Patriot and THAAD systems, by employing creative methods. “We must intensify our efforts to uncover vulnerabilities in our defensive posture to guarantee dominance in future engagements,” Fu explained in an interview with CNN. This insight underscores the need for China to address gaps in its own defense mechanisms, even as it continues to enhance its offensive capabilities.
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has recently accelerated its development of offensive firepower, particularly through the integration of hypersonic glide vehicles into missile systems. These advanced projectiles can evade traditional interceptors, significantly complicating defense strategies. Meanwhile, the PLA Air Force is rapidly expanding its fleet of fifth-generation stealth fighters, with projections suggesting nearly 1,000 J-20 jets will be operational by the time of a long-range precision strike scenario. According to the British defense think tank RUSI, this capacity places China in a strong position to counter high-tech adversaries like the United States.
Yet, analysts warn that China’s defensive systems may lag behind its offensive ones. The Iranian campaign demonstrated how even low-cost technologies, such as Shahed drones and ballistic missiles, can disrupt sophisticated US air defenses. Despite the US deploying advanced platforms like F-35s and B-2 bombers, it also relied on more affordable guided munitions from B-1, B-52, and F-15 aircraft. This dual approach allowed the US to target key infrastructure, including missile sites, naval assets, and bridges, showcasing the adaptability of modern warfare.
Taiwan as a Potential Battlefield
Taiwan is frequently highlighted as a possible trigger for a larger US-China conflict. The Chinese Communist Party has consistently declared its intent to reunify with the island, a goal it has yet to achieve through political means. President Xi Jinping has not excluded the use of military force in this effort, emphasizing the strategic importance of Taiwan in China’s broader vision of global influence.
Analysts from Taiwan acknowledge that its military is now capable of matching both US and Iranian capabilities in specific domains. While the US excels in high-tech precision strikes, China has developed a formidable force in low-cost, high-volume drone operations. “Long-range rockets and drone swarms will be central to China’s efforts to secure Taiwan,” said Chieh Chung, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research. This suggests China’s strategy could blend advanced weaponry with scalable, affordable systems to overwhelm its opponents.
However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain. The US military is also assessing its own readiness for a conflict in the Pacific, where it might find itself on the defensive rather than the offensive. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, testified in April that drones are increasingly shifting the cost balance of warfare, favoring the side that can sustain higher volumes of attacks. This dynamic could play a crucial role in any conflict over Taiwan, where China’s ability to mass-produce drones may outpace Taiwan’s defensive capabilities.
According to a 2025 report by War on the Rocks, Chinese civilian manufacturers possess the infrastructure to retool quickly and produce an estimated one billion weaponized drones annually. This capacity, if fully leveraged, could create a significant advantage. Yet, current Taiwanese countermeasures are deemed insufficient by experts. A government watchdog’s recent analysis criticized Taiwan’s drone defense systems as “ineffective,” identifying them as a major risk to critical infrastructure and military installations.
Strategic Adaptation and Future Outlook
Despite these challenges, Taiwan is actively working to strengthen its defenses. Gene Su, managing director of the island’s leading drone manufacturer Thunder Tiger, stressed the need for sustained investment in mass production capabilities. “We must operate around the clock to counter emerging threats,” Su stated, underscoring the urgency of scaling up both offensive and defensive drone operations.
Experts argue that the Iran conflict has provided China with a blueprint for leveraging technology in asymmetric warfare. By studying how Iran bypassed US defenses with relatively simple tools, Beijing can refine its own strategies to exploit vulnerabilities. This includes not only enhancing hypersonic and stealth technologies but also improving the integration of drone swarms with traditional military assets.
The US, too, is recalibrating its approach. The Iranian campaign highlighted the limitations of relying solely on high-tech systems, forcing Washington to consider how it might defend itself against a potential attack from China. With the Pacific region becoming a focal point for strategic competition, the US is increasingly aware that its adversaries may adopt more cost-effective methods to challenge its dominance.
China’s military advancements have positioned it as a key player in shaping the future of global power dynamics. If a conflict over Taiwan materializes, the combination of China’s hypersonic missiles, stealth aircraft, and drone swarms could determine the outcome. However, the lessons from Iran suggest that success depends not just on technological superiority but also on adaptability and the ability to anticipate an opponent’s tactics.
As the situation in the Persian Gulf evolves, the implications for China’s military strategy grow more apparent. The US experience demonstrates that even the most advanced forces must remain vigilant against unexpected threats. For China, the challenge lies in balancing its growing offensive capabilities with the need to fortify its defenses, ensuring it can withstand the pressures of a potential confrontation with the United States.
Ultimately, the Iran conflict serves as a mirror for China’s own military evolution. It highlights the importance of continuous innovation, strategic foresight, and the ability to adapt to changing battlefield realities. Whether this experience translates into a decisive edge for Beijing in a future conflict remains to be seen, but the conversation among experts suggests that the lessons learned will shape the next phase of the global power struggle.