White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets
White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets
Last month, the White House issued a directive to its employees, cautioning against the use of insider information for betting in prediction markets. The alert was sent on 24 March, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause on his plan to strike Iranian power plants and energy facilities. The email referenced recent news reports questioning whether government officials were leveraging non-public data to wager on platforms such as Kalshi or Polymarket.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle addressed the reports, stating that “any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.” The Wall Street Journal was the first to report on the email, highlighting the administration’s stance on ethical compliance. Ingle emphasized that all federal workers must adhere to guidelines that prevent the misuse of insider knowledge for financial benefit.
Meanwhile, the BBC has reached out to Kalshi and Polymarket for clarification. The platforms have faced scrutiny in the past, notably in January when a trader earned nearly half a million dollars betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro before the event was officially confirmed. The anonymous account used a blockchain-based identifier, raising questions about potential access to confidential intelligence.
Regulatory Concerns Rise
As prediction markets continue to grow, with over $44bn in transactions, they have become a focal point for debates on oversight. These markets allow users to bet on a wide range of outcomes, from sports events to economic policies and local elections. However, the increasing popularity has sparked calls for stricter regulations, especially regarding bets on geopolitical conflicts.
This week, US Congressman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to investigate “suspicious” trades. The commission oversees derivatives markets, which include prediction platforms. Earlier in March, Democratic leaders proposed legislation to ban betting on military actions and wars, citing fears of corruption within the industry.
“Corruption and exploitation are thriving right now within the gaps and loopholes of prediction markets,” remarked US Senator Andy Kim from New Jersey. “This manipulation leaves the select few winning big, at the expense of working Americans,” he added.