The US-Israeli war on Iran is founded on two huge mistakes
The US-Israeli War on Iran is Built on Two Major Misjudgments
Over two weeks into the conflict between Israel and the United States against Iran, the decision to launch military action appears to rest on two significant errors in judgment. These missteps, however, reveal a deeper disconnect between the objectives of the allied forces and the reality on the ground.
American Overestimation of Regime Vulnerability
The first miscalculation stems from Washington’s belief that Iran’s political system could be easily dismantled. This assumption, rooted in the expectation that Iran’s industries of war would collapse under sustained pressure, has proven overly optimistic. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a speech following the strikes, emphasized that immediate action was necessary to prevent Iran from becoming an unstoppable force. Yet, despite the heavy bombardment, the regime has not crumbled, and its capacity to retaliate remains intact.
“If we had not acted immediately, within a few months Iran’s industries of death would have become immune to any strike,” Netanyahu said in his first televised address since the war began.
Israeli Misinterpretation of Hezbollah’s Role
The second flaw lies in Tel Aviv’s underestimation of Hezbollah’s strategic importance. Israeli leaders framed the attack as a catalyst for internal Iranian unrest, claiming it would empower the population to overthrow the Islamic Republic. However, the response from Hezbollah has shown that the group remains a formidable actor, capable of countering the perceived threat.
“We want to prevent Iran from developing ballistic missiles that threaten Israel, the United States, and the entire world. That is our objective,” Netanyahu stated, asserting the attack would create conditions for regime change.
Despite the rhetoric, the outcomes have contradicted these claims. Iran, after the 12-day campaign, managed to replace its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba, signaling the endurance of its leadership structure. Additionally, the country has since launched coordinated strikes against Gulf states and Israel, demonstrating its ability to retaliate effectively.
Trump’s assertion that the attack averted a nuclear war has also been challenged by the aftermath. While the US aimed to weaken Iran’s military capabilities, the regime has not only survived but continues to assert its dominance. The recent demonstrations in Iran, though initially seen as a sign of discontent, have not yet sparked the widespread uprising Israel and the US anticipated.
What has shifted since the initial campaign is the recognition that Iran’s resilience was underestimated. The war has not only failed to topple the government but has also emboldened Tehran to challenge American and Israeli influence. With Iran inflicting damage on US assets and disrupting critical energy routes, the conflict now reflects a broader struggle between regional power and global hegemony.
The failure to achieve regime change underscores a critical error: assuming that military strikes alone could dismantle a complex political system. As Iran continues to hold its ground, the war’s impact may instead reinforce its position, signaling a significant setback for US dominance in the Middle East.