Beijing promised to ‘fight back’ over Taiwan leader’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose
Beijing promised to ‘fight back’ over Taiwan leader’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose
The upcoming meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California has raised alarms about a potential resurgence of China’s aggressive tactics seen during Nancy Pelosi’s visit last year. During that visit, China intensified its military operations, launching multiple missile strikes near Taiwan’s waters and dispatching numerous warplanes across the strategic median line of the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing also severed diplomatic ties with the United States on several fronts, from military collaboration to climate initiatives, as retaliation for what Beijing deemed a breach of its territorial authority. This time, the Chinese government has already threatened to “resolutely fight back” if Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy proceeds. It also criticized Washington for permitting Tsai to stop in the U.S. during her trips to Central America, warning that this could lead to “serious” tensions between the two nations.
Tsai’s Defiant Stance
Tsai remained resolute, vowing during her departure for a 10-day journey that external pressure would not deter Taiwan from forging global connections with like-minded democracies. However, the meeting’s location in California and timing—during a tense phase in China’s international relations and prior to Taiwan’s presidential election—might compel Beijing to adopt a more measured approach, avoiding further escalation.
“This puts the burden on China not to overreact, because any overreaction is only going to push China further away from the world,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
Despite this, Beijing is expected to remain vigilant, closely tracking Tsai’s activities to determine the appropriate level of military response. The opacity of China’s system—and the potential for competing interests within its vast bureaucracy—also makes it difficult to accurately predict its response.
“Every time Taiwan does anything that China doesn’t like, the Chinese react with their own military coercion,” Sun noted. “But in the current situation, ‘they have to consider the consequences of overreaction,’ she added.
Analysts’ Perspectives
The anticipated encounter also occurs amid heightened U.S.-China tensions, with both nations striving to maintain stable communication amidst disputes over a Chinese surveillance balloon and semiconductor supply chains. A repeat of Beijing’s previous outburst could jeopardize this fragile balance, as Taiwan still feels the fallout from last August’s response.
Taiwan’s official Central News Agency reported Monday that Tsai would meet with McCarthy, citing her presidential office. This meeting, involving the leader of the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, who ranks second in line to the Presidency, would mark another symbolic moment for Taiwan and the U.S., which only maintain unofficial ties.
A Capstone Event
For Tsai, who is entering her final year of a two-term presidency, the meeting with McCarthy represents a pivotal moment, according to Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at Australia’s National University Taiwan Studies Program. “She has this image as the Taiwanese president who has taken U.S.-Taiwan relations to new heights, and who … has been able to give Taiwan almost unprecedented international visibility,” he said.
China’s Communist Party asserts ownership of the self-governing island democracy, despite never having controlled it, and has committed to seizing the territory, even through military force if needed. Over the past decade, the party has significantly bolstered its military capabilities under President Xi Jinping, intensifying economic, diplomatic, and military pressures on Taiwan.