Nicaragua’s Ortega said he will end elections. Why isn’t the US treating this like Cuba and Venezuela?
Why US Treats Nicaragua Differently Than Cuba and Venezuela
Healfromzero.com – Nicaragua s Ortega said he will end elections, raising questions about why Washington has not responded as forcefully as it did with Cuba and Venezuela. Following the American capture of Venezuela’s president in January and new economic measures against Havana, many expected Nicaragua to become the next target. Yet despite the elimination of electoral contests by its co-presidents, American officials have maintained a notably restrained posture toward Managua.
Diplomatic Signals and Strategic Caution
Days after the Venezuelan operation concluded, Nicaragua implemented several measures that analysts interpreted as conciliatory signals to Washington. The government released dozens of detainees following American demands for their freedom. Additionally, Managua restored visa requirements for Cuban citizens, effectively reducing migration flows toward North America.
These diplomatic moves came alongside renewed American pressure. In April, the United States introduced fresh sanctions targeting two of Ortega and Murillo’s sons, expanding the scope of economic penalties against the ruling family.
Expert Analysis on Strategic Differences
Professor Kai Thaler from the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Department of Global Studies explained that Nicaragua occupies a different position in American foreign policy calculations. “For Marco Rubio, Cuba matters much more than Nicaragua. Also, Nicaragua does not have Venezuela’s natural resources,” Thaler noted.
The academic highlighted another critical distinction: Nicaragua operates as a family dynasty without a designated successor comparable to Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez, who assumed leadership following President Nicolas Maduro’s capture. “Every alternative for leadership has been eliminated by Ortega and Murillo,” Thaler asserted.
Gradual Pressure Over Direct Intervention
Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances, and Development Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, described Washington’s Nicaraguan strategy as fundamentally different from approaches applied to Caracas and Havana. The analyst suggested the White House prefers to avoid measures that might trigger mass migration or harsh repression, instead betting on incremental transformation without military or political intervention.
“One interpretation is that the political inertia in the Murillo and Ortega dictatorship will generate internal conflict, an economic slowdown, a possible social protest where (the US) can leverage its pressure. But not the other way around. If it intervenes at this moment, it is not known what the effect on a political transition would be,” Orozco explained.
Orozco emphasized that the Sandinista administration, which has maintained control since 2007, currently faces neither severe economic disruption nor widespread street demonstrations. Consequently, any American intervention would essentially force a political transition rather than respond to existing pressures.
Ortega’s Public Statements and Internal Messaging
President Daniel Ortega, who has governed Nicaragua for nearly two decades, made rare public appearances in April when he characterized American sanctions on his children as “mentally deranged.” Three months later, he declared the end of elections and labeled Maduro’s capture a “monstrosity.”
Speaking to supporters on Monday, Ortega stated that eliminating electoral contests would prevent opposition forces from gaining power. Thaler observed that such bold pronouncements suggest the government “does not believe the United States is going to focus on Nicaragua, that Ortega feels safe criticizing and insulting Trump like that.”
Orozco suggested the April statement was primarily a message for the internal ranks. “Put pejoratively, it’s as if they let the dog out to bark, but not to bite. It’s symbolic for the internal base, to say that we are still anti-imperialists. The reality is different; there is no expression of solidarity with Venezuela or Cuba in rhetoric or foreign policy,” he said.
Looking Ahead
CNN’s inquiries to the Nicaraguan government went unanswered, consistent with the administration’s typical media silence. Orozco maintained that Washington has been steadily building pressure through sanctions, a pattern Nicaragua rarely addresses publicly.
“A mistaken reading gives the impression that Nicaragua comes after (Venezuela and Cuba), that the only US policy is direct intervention. There is no calculation of what that means. No one thinks about what it would mean for the US to remove these people from power when there is no opposition, the citizens do not know who the leaders in exi,” Orozco concluded.