Hungarians decide whether to end 16 years of Orbán rule and elect rival
Hungarians decide whether to end 16 years of Orbán rule and elect rival
Hungarians are set to vote in a crucial election that could mark the end of Viktor Orbán’s 16-year tenure as prime minister and reshape political dynamics across Europe, the U.S., and Russia. While most polls indicate support for Péter Magyar, the leader of a new party born from the split of the ruling Fidesz, Orbán has shown no signs of retreat. Ahead of the poll, he urged his base in a Budapest square, declaring,
“We are going to achieve such a victory that will surprise everyone, perhaps even ourselves.”
Voting closes at 19:00 local time (17:00 GMT), with early results expected in the evening. Orbán intensified his campaign by accusing the opposition of “stop at nothing to seize power,” while Magyar countered by urging voters to resist “Fidesz pressure and blackmail.” The stakes are high: Magyar’s Tisza party promises a regime shift, a reorientation toward the EU, and a distancing from Russia, contrasting sharply with Orbán’s consolidation of authority over the judiciary, media, and public institutions.
Magyar’s final rally in Debrecen drew larger crowds than Orbán’s in Budapest, signaling shifting public sentiment. Yet Orbán retains backing from Donald Trump, who has praised him as a “true friend, fighter, and WINNER,” encouraging Hungarians to “get out and vote.” Orbán’s rhetoric continues to focus on resisting Brussels and Ukraine, stating,
“We don’t give our children, we don’t give our weapons and we don’t give our money.”
His supporters echoed this, chanting “we won’t let that happen.”
Despite his popularity, Orbán’s grip on power faces growing challenges. The economy is under strain, and recent scandals—such as Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó’s pre- and post-EU summit communications with Russia—have eroded confidence. Hungary’s position in the EU and NATO is also a focal point, with Orbán’s veto of €90bn in Ukraine aid sparking tensions. Analysts at Budapest’s Political Capital think tank, including Róbert László, note that three major pollsters predict a “huge lead” for Tisza, though a two-thirds majority remains uncertain.
László suggests the public has turned against Orbán, citing dissent from police, military, and business figures. However, the electoral system’s complexity could still favor Fidesz. Ágoston Mráz of the Nézőpont Institute highlights 22 “battleground seats” where Fidesz might reclaim control, though immediate vote counts may not reflect the full outcome. Mráz also notes that Fidesz’s voter base includes a higher proportion of blue-collar workers, who may be less vocal in polls.
Magyar’s path to victory hinges on securing key urban areas, such as Györ—Hungary’s sixth-largest city near the Slovak border. Orbán’s campaign in Györ last month revealed his vulnerability, as he noticeably lost ground in local support. With the final results pending, the election could determine whether Orbán’s influence wanes or solidifies for another term.