Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

The ceasefire discussions in Pakistan hinge on the United States and Iran having compelling motives to pause hostilities. Yet, the most significant hurdle remains the lack of trust between the two nations and their divergent priorities. Meanwhile, Israel’s intensified attacks on Lebanon complicate matters, as its close alliance with America underscores the war’s ongoing momentum.

President Donald Trump, already framing the conflict in past tense, seeks a swift resolution to align with his political calendar. His schedule includes a royal visit from King Charles later this month and a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, with midterm elections in November looming. A ceasefire would ease tensions during America’s summer holidays, helping to stabilize oil prices—a critical factor in his re-election prospects.

Iran’s regime, though resilient, is driven by its own strategic imperatives. Despite its defiance and continued ability to deploy missiles and drones, the country faces severe economic strain. Cities are paralyzed, and the leadership needs time to recover. The Pakistan-mediated talks offer a chance to bolster its position, even as the two sides remain locked in stark disagreement.

The talks involve a delicate balancing act for Pakistani diplomats. The US’s 15-point plan, though unpublished, has been described as more of a surrender outline than a negotiation framework. Iran’s 10-point proposal, meanwhile, lists demands consistently rejected by Washington. Any lasting agreement must navigate these irreconcilable positions, even as the war’s broader consequences unfold.

“A capital V military victory,” US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth remarked, but Trump’s representatives now face adversaries they claim to have defeated. The initial strikes on Iran’s leadership, including the supreme leader and key family members, were intended to trigger regime collapse. Yet, the regime’s endurance defies expectations, with Mojtaba Khamanei, the designated successor, missing in action amid speculation of injuries from the attack.

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a pivotal issue, its reopening central to the negotiations. Iran’s control of the waterway exerts economic pressure on global markets, while the US and Israel’s earlier strikes disrupted its flow. The conflict’s broader impact on Middle Eastern geopolitics is already reshaping alliances, and its long-term effects will further deepen this transformation. Despite tactical gains, the US and Israel have not secured strategic dominance, as Iran remains capable of waging war independently.