Iran Strait of Hormuz warning adds to shipping uncertainty
Iran Strait of Hormuz warning adds to shipping uncertainty
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a directive to maritime vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, stating that any ship attempting to traverse the waterway without authorization “will be targeted and destroyed,” according to SSY, a shipping brokerage firm. This warning comes amid a fragile two-week ceasefire, which was established on Tuesday evening with the condition that “safe passage” for vessels is ensured. However, only a small number of ships have managed to cross since the agreement took effect.
Strategic Importance of the Strait
The narrow waterway, spanning just 33km (21 miles) at its widest point, has become a critical battleground in the ongoing tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran. It serves as a lifeline for global energy supplies, facilitating the movement of nearly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Over the past five weeks, disruptions in this vital corridor have triggered economic ripples, raising energy prices and highlighting the world’s dependence on the strait for international trade.
Current Ship Movements
As of 14:00 BST on 8 April, BBC Verify’s analysis of ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic revealed that only three bulk carriers—NJ Earth, Daytona Beach, and Hai Long 1—had navigated the strait since the ceasefire was announced late Tuesday. This contrasts sharply with the average of 138 ships daily that transited the area before the conflict began on 28 February. Analysts remain divided on whether these crossings are a direct result of the ceasefire or prearranged exceptions.
“Most shipping lines would want to get details and reassurances on what it actually takes to transit and those details are not available,” said Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime.
“It is still too soon to tell whether this reflects a broader ceasefire-driven reopening or a previously approved exception,” noted Ana Subasic from Kpler.
The cautious approach of ship operators is compounded by lingering doubts about the ceasefire’s terms. Richard Meade of Lloyd’s List emphasized the “very dangerous” environment for vessel owners, stating that the IRGC likely retains control over the strait and the process for granting transit permissions remains unclear. “We know Iran is essentially still in control… and how that’s going to work is still not clear,” he added.
Uncertainties Ahead
Analysts like Niels Rasmussen of BIMCO suggest that the two-week ceasefire may not immediately lead to a surge in traffic. “I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Gulf… because they do not want to risk being trapped after the two-week window closes,” he warned. Other concerns include the potential deployment of sea mines and the possibility of tolls for safe passage, as reported by some sources.
“We need to make sure that we have clear confirmation that the safety of navigation for the ships and the seafarers are being agreed,” said Thomas Kazakos of the International Chamber of Shipping.
While countries such as India, Malaysia, and the Philippines have secured safe passage for their vessels, the prospect of paying tolls could complicate operations for others. “The Iranian negotiation position seems to be that you need to pay a toll to go through the strait and shipping lines will also be hesitant in going down the path of paying that toll,” explained Jensen. This uncertainty, coupled with US sanctions, adds another layer of risk for maritime routes.