Experts dispute US account of deadly Iran sports hall strike in Lamerd
Experts Challenge U.S. Claim of Iranian Responsibility in Lamerd Attack
On the opening day of the conflict, the U.S. asserted that Iran might have launched a deadly strike on Lamerd, a town in southern Iran. However, several weapons specialists have since questioned this attribution, citing evidence from video footage and technical analysis. The experts argue that the missile’s characteristics do not align with the Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile, based on its visual profile, explosion dynamics, and flight path.
Analysis of Strike Footage Sparks Debate
Following the attack on February 28, Iranian officials reported 21 fatalities, including four children. BBC Verify’s initial report, published on March 28, suggested the missile could be a U.S. Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), manufactured by Lockheed Martin. At the time, the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) did not respond to the analysis but later released a statement on March 31, affirming that the footage matches an Iranian Hoveyzeh missile.
“US forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries more than 300 times,”
Centcom’s denial was reiterated when BBC Verify revisited the case, with the command stating it had “nothing to add” to its original claim. The verified CCTV clip, authenticated and geolocated by BBC Verify, showed a missile detonating above a residential zone. Experts noted the mid-air explosion aligns with the PrSM’s airburst capability, which disperses fragments over a broader area.
Technical Discrepancies in Missile Identification
Weapons analysts pointed to specific features distinguishing the PrSM from the Hoveyzeh. Amael Kotlarski of Janes defense intelligence highlighted the Hoveyzeh’s belly-mounted turbojet and mid-body wings, which should be visible from any angle. “None of that is clearly distinguishable from the footage,” he said. Another expert from McKenzie Intelligence added that the weapon in question lacked external engines or wings, further supporting the PrSM theory.
“The munition depicted in the video appears to be twice as long, consistent with the dimensions and silhouette of an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile,”
Despite the low-resolution video, experts confirmed the mid-air blast was unmistakable. Meanwhile, a separate strike nearly 400km east, targeting a school and military base in Minab, left 168 people dead. Analysis indicated a U.S. Tomahawk missile likely caused the damage, though Centcom has not commented on that incident. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth mentioned the event was under investigation, asserting that “US forces never target civilian targets.”
As the debate continues, the discrepancy in missile identification underscores the complexity of attributing strikes in the region. While Centcom maintains the Hoveyzeh was used, independent experts remain unconvinced, emphasizing the visual and technical differences between the two systems.