Should I book travel now? What the Iran war means for your plans
Should I book travel now? What the Iran war means for your plans
As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the ripple effects of the Iran conflict are already influencing everyday expenses worldwide. From fuel costs to retail prices, households are feeling the strain, though these concerns remain secondary to the immediate dangers faced by those directly involved in the fighting. The travel industry is not immune to these pressures, with global air routes experiencing significant disruptions since the start of hostilities in late February. Now, the consequences are rippling beyond the region, prompting travelers to reassess their plans for upcoming vacations, business trips, or necessary journeys.
Flight Prices and Fuel Costs
With oil prices soaring, airlines are grappling with rising jet fuel expenses, which have led to sharp increases in ticket costs. However, the war’s duration remains uncertain, leaving some travelers to wonder if they should wait for prices to stabilize before booking. Clint Henderson, a spokesperson for The Points Guy, advises against delaying. “We’re recommending people book whenever they can, for the rest of the year, now,” he says. This shift marks a departure from standard practices, where travelers typically purchase domestic U.S. tickets one to two months in advance or international ones two to three months ahead.
“When the United CEO warns prices are rising, you can pretty much take it to the bank.”
Henderson notes that while oil price spikes don’t always translate directly to higher fares, the urgency of the situation means airlines are likely to pass on costs. To mitigate risks, he suggests using platforms like Junova.AI and pAIback, which track prices and offer credits if they drop. He also cautions against basic economy bookings, as they often come with stricter refund and change policies.
Flexibility and Uncertainty
International travelers face additional challenges, including tighter refund and rebooking rules. Middle Eastern carriers, however, are showing more adaptability, making them a potential option for those with accumulated points or miles. This flexibility could help offset the rising costs and uncertainties in the current climate.
According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, the tourism sector is losing at least $600 million daily due to the conflict, a figure that underscores the scale of disruption. Before the war, the council had projected $207 billion in spending by visitors in the Middle East for 2026. These losses may drive up prices for flights and hotels, though the extent of the increase is still unclear.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy highlights that the Middle East accounts for roughly 5% of global international arrivals. Additionally, about 10% of U.S. travelers heading to Asia pass through regional hubs. Fuel costs are a critical factor here, with oil prices recently exceeding $100 per barrel. Airlines that hedge fuel purchases are better positioned to manage these costs, as noted by Cirium’s analysis. U.S. carriers, for instance, have minimal hedging, while European and Asian airlines like Singapore Airlines and Qantas have secured prices for part of their fuel needs.
Operational Challenges and Rerouting
Airline operations are also being reshaped by airspace closures. Companies such as Emirates and Qatar Airways have had to alter flight paths, consuming more fuel and increasing expenses. Direct Europe-Asia routes are particularly affected, with many flights now diverted through narrow corridors over Georgia and Azerbaijan or taking longer southern routes. While airlines can temporarily absorb higher fuel costs, sustained increases typically lead to higher fares.
Gloria Guevara, president of the World Travel & Tourism Council, acknowledges the industry’s efforts to minimize disruption. “The airport has done a fantastic job of rerouting passengers, which we’re also seeing with other hubs in the region affected by the conflict,” she remarked to CNN Travel. This adaptability may provide some relief, but the broader economic impact on travel remains a key concern.