Report Questions Russia’s Military Dominance in Ukraine
A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) states that approximately 1.2 million Russian troops have suffered fatalities, injuries, or are unaccounted for since the invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. This casualty rate for a major military power is unprecedented since World War II, according to the think tank’s findings.
The report highlights that Russia’s significant human losses have not translated into substantial territorial gains. Since 2022, the amount of Ukrainian land under Russian control has increased by only 12%, underscoring the limited progress despite the heavy toll.
“Russia has the upper hand,” US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Politico last month. “They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger… At some point, size will win,” Trump added.
However, the CSIS report challenges the assumption that Russia’s victory is inevitable. It emphasizes that Ukraine maintains a considerable strategic advantage as the defensive force on the battlefield. Kyiv’s “defense-in-depth” strategy—combining trenches, anti-tank obstacles, mines, and other barriers with drones and artillery—has effectively hindered Russia’s ability to achieve meaningful advances.
Battlefield casualties are heavily skewed in Ukraine’s favor, with a ratio of 2.5 to 1 or 2 to 1 compared to Russia’s losses. While both nations do not publicly release detailed figures for combat casualties, the report estimates Ukrainian casualties at 500,000 to 600,000, versus Russia’s 1.2 million.
The authors of the report argue that the data indicates Russia is struggling to maintain momentum. Comparing Moscow’s losses to conflicts involving major powers since World War II, the figures are staggering. The United States lost around 57,000 troops in the Korean War and 47,000 during the Vietnam War. Russia’s casualties in Ukraine, however, exceed five times the total losses from all Russian and Soviet wars since the war ended in 1945.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte noted earlier this month that Moscow has lost 1,000 troops daily in December. “Not seriously wounded, dead,” he clarified. “In the 1980s in Afghanistan, the Soviets lost 20,000 in 10 years. Now they lose 30,000 in one month,” Rutte stated.
Foreign analysts warn that Russia’s current military losses are surpassing sustainable recruitment and replacement rates. “Russian military losses, of those killed and wounded, now exceed sustainable recruitment and replacement rates,” said James Ford, Britain’s deputy ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, in a recent speech.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has seen minimal territorial gains for the hundreds of thousands of lives lost since ordering the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In the past two years, Russian advances in certain areas have amounted to mere yards per day, far below half a football field per day.
